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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hands off to running back James Cook (4). Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Week 11 betting guide

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/17/23

We've moved into the postseason race portion of the season, with the stakes oh so high and plenty of teams looking like they have a path to the playoffs. There's a lot to like after a week of research, so here's our six favorites for NFL Week 11.

Last week, the Six-Pack cooled off at 2-4, bringing our season total to 29-25. It seems only right to get back on track with a fresh case of picks.

Tides turning: Rico Dowdle over 27.5 rushing yards (-113 Caesars)

Carolina is arguably the worst run defense in the NFL, and with the Cowboys installed as 11-point favorites, they seem poised to run up the score again and cruise to victory.

Insert Rico Dowdle. Dowdle took 12 carries last week for 79 yards and a touchdown, and was far more efficient than Tony Pollard with the football.

It seems likely Dowdle will get similar workload in a lopsided game, and the Panthers are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs, which should give both Cowboys runners a piece of the pie.

Love 'em all, so pivot to the passer: Jordan Love passing yards

When you study this week's matchups, the Green Bay pass-catchers showed up all over the place. The Chargers let up a ton of receptions to running backs and tight ends, so we thought Aaron Jones and Luke Musgrave looked solid.

Los Angeles is allowing the second-most 20+ yard passes/game this season, the highest yards per pass attempt and the most passing yards per game, which had us loving all of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.

Rather than pick a player to pop, let's just load up the guy throwing them the football. Love is over this yardage total in three straight games, and every single quarterback to see the Chargers has gone over their passing prop.

Bring on the fun: Chicago-Detroit over 48 points (-110 DK)

Justin Fields is back, and Chicago scores about four points more per game when he's in the lineup compared to out of it since the start of last season. The Bears should see a jolt to their offense, notably their passing attack, which coincides well with what the Lions have had issues defending.

Then on the flip side, Detroit's offense is firing on all cylinders. If the Bears shut down their ground game, all that will do is open the door for Jared Goff to pick on this secondary with his plethora of weapons.

The past two games between these teams has seen game totals reach 51 and 61 points. Take over 48 points.

Tight end trends: Trey McBride over 54.5 yards (-115 DK)

No team allows more receptions per game to tight ends than the Houston Texans at 7.11. That's music to Trey McBride's ears, as the Cardinals TE has been on an absolute tear.

Since Zach Ertz went down, McBride has 21 catches on 28 targets in three games, with two massive games of 95 and 131 yards.

Multiple TEs have had big games against Houston this year, and now it's McBride's turn. Grab this number with confidence.

Following the profits: Jets-Bills under 39.5 (-110 DK)

If you had bet the under in every Jets and Bills game this season, you'd be sitting with a cool 13-6 betting record. It seems only prudent we follow those betting trends and fade these offenses in a big AFC East showdown between two floundering teams.

Three straight meetings for the Jets and Bills have gone under this total, including Week 1 this season. Here's to another one.

This keeps happening: Minnesota +2 (-110 DK)

Why are the Vikings underdogs to the Broncos? Joshua Dobbs has been tremendous at quarterback for Minnesota, and the team has now won five straight games. Nothing about Denver makes us feel confident backing them as favorites, and considering Minnesota is 6-3-1 ATS, it's clear where this bet has to land.

Load up the Vikings to cover the +2 on "Sunday Night Football."

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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