San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19). Bob Self/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Week 11: Three TD bets worth your time and $$$

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/17/23

Plenty looks good around the NFL around this time, doesn't it always? We've crunched the numbers looking at touchdowns allowed to each position. We've studied the red zone roles and usage rates for each team. What's left are three touchdown scorers we like best for Week 11.

We recommend no more than half-unit bets on this prop market.

Deebo Samuel (+155 Fanatics)

Deebo Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers will face off against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed per game to WRs and getting overall gashed through the air this season.

That most definitely makes the Niners receivers look appealing, and Samuel has an intriguing edge in the red zone that compels me to consider him a solid bet. In a few less games, Samuel has seen 11 red zone targets this season to Brandon Aiyuk's five, scoring three touchdowns.

I like this spot for Deebo to get going.

Devin Singletary (+100 DK)

As of this writing it sounds as if Dameon Pierce will miss another game, giving Devin Singletary lead back duties in Houston again. Singletary is fresh off his best game of the season, a 150+ yard effort that saw him find the end zone.

Singletary now has 20 red zone looks this season and it may be a nice time for him to stack some strong performances, as Arizona is one of the NFL's worst run defenses and allowing the third-most touchdowns per game to RBs.

Romeo Doubs (+290 Fanatics)

Green Bay's best course of attack against the Chargers is most definitely through the air. No team allows more yards per pass attempt or passing yards than Los Angeles, and all of that volume helps explain why they're allowing the fourth-most touchdowns/game to WRs (tied).

Doubs tops this WR group in targets at 59 and red zone targets at 12, and he's scored six touchdowns already on the season. It's a great spot for him to keep building on this stellar 2023.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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