-
Follow Us
On Facebook
On Flipboard
On Twitter
NFL Week 11 player props: Don't question these QBs on Sunday
More and more I'm starting to migrate into the QB passing yardage market, rather than hone in on a certain pass-catcher to deliver a big day. It helps open the avenues for happiness, as any completed pass is good news on our end.
There are two QBs here with a few things in common: they've hit their line in three straight, and they're playing teams who have combined to let 16 of 18 QBs go over this year. They now share another commonality: I've bet on them this weekend.
Jordan Love over 225.5 passing yards (-115 Fanatics)
As I took stock of this weekend's games, it was no surprise to once again see the Los Angeles Chargers littered throughout my research.
The Chargers are allowing the most passing yards per game, the highest yards per pass attempt, the second-most 20+ yard passes per game, and they tend to see a lot of receptions from tight ends and running backs.
That caused just about this entire Packers passing attack to show up, and rather than pinpoint where the ball is going to go, I'm just backing the guy throwing it.
Love is over this total in three straight games, averaging 33.3 pass attempts/game on the season.
The more important mark for me to put this over the finish line was seeing what quarterbacks have done against Los Angeles. The Chargers have played nine games this season. Nine times a QB has gone over their yardage prop, and it truly has never really been that close.
Brock Purdy over 254.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)
Similarly to the Green Bay offense, I definitely expect San Francisco's pass-catchers to have themselves a day against this Tampa Bay secondary. Sure, I backed Will Levis last week to failure against the Bucs, but I'm willing to forget that and focus on the 49ers, who should find some better success.
Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-most pass yards per attempt and the second-most explosive plays through the air, and they've had serious issues slowing down WRs in particular, which has me eyeing guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.
I'll go for Purdy instead, though I may double-dip with Aiyuk in some regard later. The San Fran passer has exceeded this line in three straight games and five of his last seven, and seven of the nine QBs to see Tampa have hit on their passing yards this season.
Tampa Bay has a solid run defense, allowing the seventh-fewest rush yards per attempt. Teams just tend to pass against them instead. I crunched the numbers and more passes = more chances at yards. That's just science.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
More must-reads:
Breaking News
Sign up for the Bark Bets Newsletter
Bark Bets is Yardbarker's free daily guide to the world of sports betting. You'll get:
- Picks and predictions from our in-house experts
- The last-minute updates that give you an edge
- Special offers from Sportsbooks
Subscribe now!
