NFL Week 10 matchups: An insiders' guide

Buffalo (6-2) at Cleveland (2-6), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Bills numbers: Buffalo's strength of victory is .176 (combined record of teams beaten), the lowest mark among current playoff teams. Their passing attack needs to step up against tougher competition, as the Bills currently rank just 24th in pass offense EPA despite facing five of the bottom eight pass defenses according to EPA.

Inside Bills roster: Jordan Phillips has helped compensate for Buffalo’s lack of sack production from its defensive ends; Sean McDermott benched first-round pick Ed Oliver to make room for him in the starting lineup. The former Dolphin castoff has six sacks – tops among defensive tackles this season. That total also nearly doubles the Bills’ defensive end starters’ sack work, with Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy combining for 3.5. With Hughes in his age-31 season and underwhelming ex-first-rounder Shaq Lawson in a contract year, the Bills will soon have a key need at edge rusher.

Inside Browns numbers: Odell Beckham has been insanely underused in the red zone, seeing just four targets there (tied for 98th in the league). Beckham is averaging career-lows in receiving yards per game (71.9), receptions per game (4.9) and touchdowns per game (0.13). 

Inside Browns roster: While the Browns are trudging through a wildly underwhelming season, they will deploy one of the most talented backfield tandems in recent memory Sunday. Controversial free agent signing Kareem Hunt will join the NFL’s No. 4 rusher, Nick Chubb. The 2017 rushing champion, Hunt was having a better 2018 season before the video showing him kicking a woman at a Cleveland hotel drove him out of Kansas City. Chubb still figures to be Cleveland’s A-side back, but with the Browns’ much-hyped passing game in tatters, the ability to lean on a high-caliber backfield duo represents faint hope.

Detroit (3-5-1) at Chicago (3-5), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Lions numbers: Matthew Stafford is playing tremendously, leading the league in passing yards per game (312.4) and ranking fifth in passer rating (106.0). (The league average is 92.7.) His efforts have the Lions' passing attack ranked fourth in EPA and net yards per attempt.

Inside Lions roster: When Detroit signed Marvin Jones to a five-year, $40 million deal in 2016, it looked like an overpay for the ex-A.J. Green’s sidekick. But Jones has made one of GM Bob Quinn’s first signings look smart and is on pace for another strong season. Coming off a season-high 126 yards, Jones is moving toward his second 1,000-yard slate and with 42 catches through eight games is also tracking to smash his season reception high. Now the 32nd-highest-paid receiver, the 29-year-old Jones is signed through 2020 and has been more effective in Detroit than he was in Cincinnati.

Inside Bears numbers: Chicago's passing attack is embarrassingly bad, as its average of 5.0 net yards per attempt is better than only the anemic Jets. Mitchell Trubisky's average of 5.6 yards per attempt ranks last among qualified quarterbacks.

Inside Bears roster: An effect of Trubisky’s freefall, Chicago has received next to nothing from its tight ends. High-priced free agent Trey Burton, who posted 569 yards receiving and six touchdowns in 2018, leads the Bears’ tight ends with a ghastly 84 yards in seven games. Coupled with former second-round pick Adam Shaheen’s 249 yards in three seasons and a whiff on Dion Sims in 2017, GM Ryan Pace has struggled to fill this position. Burton’s $8M-average annual value contract does not make him a logical cut candidate until 2021.

N.Y. Giants (2-7) at N.Y. Jets (1-7), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Giants numbers: Saquon Barkley is averaging 2.9 yards per carry over his last four games, the worst average he has posted over a four-game stretch in his NFL or college career. Things may not improve against the Jets, who lead the league in rush defense EPA and fewest yards per rush attempt allowed (3.1).

Inside Giants roster: With teams relentlessly targeting first-rounder DeAndre Baker – Pro Football Focus’ second-lowest-graded cornerback – and Janoris Jenkins a trade/cut candidate next year, corner remains a glaring Giants need. The team will at least see if its 2018 supplemental draft pick has any value, however, with Sam Beal being activated this week. The Giants sacrificed a third-round choice to take the Western Michigan product, but he has spent his 1½-year NFL career on IR.

Inside Jets numbers: The Jets' passing attack owns the league's highest interception rate (4.7 percent) and lowest net yards per attempt average (4.3). Their league-worst pass offense EPA of -89.8 is 65.7 points behind the 31st-ranked Giants, a margin similar to the one separating the top-ranked Chiefs (113.5) and 16th-ranked Rams (49.8).

Inside Jets roster: Cornerback Trumaine Johnson is now on the Jets’ IR list, and it’s safe to assume the free-agency misfire will tag the Jets with $12 million in dead-money charges once he’s cut in 2020. Fired GM Mike Maccagnan’s veteran investment record is downright spooky. Big-ticket expenses Johnson, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Antonio Cromartie and, thus far, LB C.J. Mosley produced little. DE Muhammad Wilkerson burned the Jets after his 2016 extension, the team is headed for a grievance with offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele, and RB Le’Veon Bell has not justified his $13M-per-year price tag.

Kansas City (6-3) at Tennessee (4-5), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Chiefs numbers: Kansas City must get better in the red zone. A year ago, the Chiefs ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate (71.8 percent) and scored a league-high 51 red zone touchdowns. In 2019, the Chiefs are 27th in red-zone touchdown rate (44.8 percent) and rank 21st in red-zone touchdowns (13). 

Inside Chiefs roster: Kansas City has quietly improved in pass defense in recent weeks, doing so despite injuries to Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Kendall Fuller. One key bright spot for DVOA’s No. 4 unit: second-year UDFA Charvarious Ward, who has become the team’s most dependable cornerback. Pro Football Focus’ No. 17 corner played 100% of the Chiefs’ snaps the past two weeks and helped them hold the Vikings to their second-lowest yardage total (308) of the season. With Jones and Patrick Mahomes extensions possible in 2020, finding rookie-deal starters is paramount for the Chiefs.

Inside Titans numbers: Tennessee's offense has improved since Ryan Tannehill took over, averaging 23.3 points over his three starts after averaging 14.8 points over Marcus Mariota's six starts. Tannehill has averaged 6.8 net yards per attempt, significantly ahead of Mariota's mark of 5.5 (league average 6.4). 

Inside Titans roster: Malcolm Butler’s broken wrist will disband Tennessee’s high-caliber cornerback trio for 2019’s remainder. Pro Football Focus viewed Butler as a mid-pack cornerback this season, and it gave Logan Ryan and Adoree’ Jackson top-25 grades. In Butler’s stead, the Titans will turn to fourth-year corner LeShaun Sims. A former sixth-round pick, Sims started nine games from 2016-18. With Mahomes possibly returning this week, it’s a bad time for the Titans to be shorthanded here.

Arizona (3-5-1) at Tampa Bay (2-6), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Cardinals numbers: Arizona's defense, ranked 29th in points allowed per drive (2.59), is an issue. It is also poor in the clutch, ranking 20th in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (58.8 percent) and 28th in the third-down conversion rate allowed (46.6 percent).

Inside Cardinals roster: Arizona has tried to find a place for linebacker Haason Reddick, playing the former college pass rusher at three different linebacker spots. The team recently benched the 2017 first-rounder for Joe Walker, whom Steve Wilks’ 2018 staff plucked off the Eagles’ practice squad. But both Reddick and Walker rate as bottom-five Pro Football Focus linebackers. With the Cards having signed the nomadic Zach Brown after their 49ers loss, it would not surprise to see the eighth-year veteran playing alongside Jordan Hicks at inside linebacker.

Inside Buccaneers numbers: Jameis Winston, who has thrown 12 interceptions, ranks 16th in net yards per attempt (6.6). However, he is tied for the league lead in turnovers (16). 

Inside Buccaneers roster: Bruce Arians confirmed this week Ronald Jones has supplanted Peyton Barber as the Bucs’ running back starter. With this season now about building toward 2020, it’s smart for the Bucs to take a closer look at last year’s second-round pick. Jones has outproduced Barber, averaging 4.1 yards per carry to the incumbent’s 3.3 in the backs’ near-even handoff split. Tampa Bay ranked in the NFL’s bottom fourth in rushing from 2016-18; the team ranks 19th on the ground this season.

Atlanta (1-7) at New Orleans (7-1), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Falcons numbers: The Falcons' defense is ranked last in points allowed per drive (2.98), much due to a quiet pass rush that ranks last in sack rate (2.7 percent). Atlanta needs more from D-lineman Grady Jarrett, who is tied for 69th in pressures with 19 after tying for 27th with 53 a season ago.

Inside Falcons roster: The Lions and Falcons discussed a Devonta Freeman trade before the deadline, but the sixth-year back will remain in Atlanta until season’s end. Freeman’s numbers are down from his pre-injury version. He’s averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per carry – a full yard down from his previous healthy season (2017). The two-time Pro Bowler could be a cut candidate next season for the cap-strapped Falcons, but with the dead money ($6 million) outweighing the cap savings ($3.5M) for such a move, the team may have to ride it out with its expensive starter.

Inside Saints numbers: Sean Payton's team has owned third down, ranking fourth defensively (32 percent conversion rate allowed) and eighth offensively (45.2 percent conversion rate). Drew Brees was a wizard on third down in his Week 8 return, completing 8-for-10 third- down pass attempts for 98 yards and six first downs.

Inside Saints roster: The current CBA has made developing offensive linemen a sketchy proposition, leading to many teams seeking free-agent solutions. But the Saints may have hit big on another O-line draft choice. Two years after first-rounder Ryan Ramczyk quickly became a top-tier right tackle, the Saints have seen 2019 Round 2 pick Erik McCoy shine at center. The Texas A&M product rates as Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 overall center. McCoy has helped the Saints recover from Max Unger’s mid-offseason retirement and profiles as a rare resource – a quality O-lineman on a cheap contract.

Miami (1-7) at Indianapolis (5-3), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Dolphins numbers: Ryan Fitzpatrick may be getting on one of those rolls. Over his past four games, he has produced a 95.3 passer rating (92.7 is average) and eight touchdowns (seven passing, one rushing). He has kept the turnovers relatively low, with three interceptions and one lost fumble over the span.

Inside Dolphins roster: Fitzpatrick will have less to work with this week. In a two-hour span Monday, news emerged of running back Mark Walton’s four-game suspension and promising rookie wideout Preston Williams’ ACL tear. Both had become key cogs in the Dolphins’ offense. Kalen Ballage (2.0 yards per carry) will take over at running back, though this could be a window to examine seventh-round rookie Myles Gaskin – a 5,000-yard rusher at Washington. This is a major blow for Williams, a UDFA who was on pace to become only the second Dolphins rookie receiver to surpass 800 yards.

Inside Colts numbers: Each Colts game has been decided by one score, making them just the eighth team in league history to start a season with eight straight one-score games. Indianapolis ranks third in the red zone offensively (67.9 percent touchdown rate) and 10th defensively (51.9 percent touchdown rate allowed), a crucial element for a team playing in so many close games.

Inside Colts roster: With 37 starts to his name, Brian Hoyer is a better backup option than most teams possess. Hoyer’s 13 Browns starts in 2014 look borderline miraculous, considering he went 7-6 before vacating the job for Johnny Manziel, and he piloted the 2015 Texans to the playoffs with 19 TD passes in 11 games. Hoyer threw three in a winnable Steelers game, and with Frank Reich pulling the strings, Jacoby Brissett’s $4 million-per-year backup will be in position to succeed against the Dolphins.

L.A. Rams (5-3) at Pittsburgh (4-4), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Rams numbers: It's been a so-so start for CB Jalen Ramsey over his first two games with the Rams, as he has allowed 11 catches on 14 targets for 158 yards and five first downs. The L.A. pass defense is solid, ranking 11th in EPA and 13th in net yards per attempt. But Ramsey must be dominant to be worth the cost (two first-rounders and a fourth-rounder) it took to get him from the Jags. 

Inside Rams roster: With QB Jared Goff certainly not a lock to live up to his summer extension and RB Todd Gurley’s contract looking like a major misstep, Brandin Cooks’ concussion trouble becomes a bigger-picture problem. The Rams guaranteed Cooks $50 million; he’s tethered to their payroll through at least 2022. Cooks is one of the team’s five cornerstone players, and this represents a crucial point for both parties. The Rams should consider sitting their deep threat for a bit, as he’s now suffered four documented concussions since entering the pros.

Inside Steelers numbers: Pittsburgh's defense has forced 10 turnovers over its last three games, driving the Steelers' three-game win streak. The Steelers have forced at least two turnovers in seven consecutive games, and are leading the NFL with a 23.3 percent takeaway rate. 

Inside Steelers roster: While Pittsburgh should beware of a contract-year outlier, Bud Dupree has already matched his season sack high with six. The 2015 first-round pick has never lived up to his draft status, but suddenly, he and 2017 first-rounder T.J. Watt (7.5 sacks, a staggering 20 QB hits) look like one of the league’s best edge tandems. The Steelers should not rush into extension talks with Dupree, but they’ve drafted five first-round linebackers in seven years. It would look good for the franchise if one of them finally signed a second contract.

Carolina (5-3) at Green Bay (7-2), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Panthers numbers: Christian McCaffrey is leading the NFL with 155.5 scrimmage yards per game and 13 touchdowns. If he maintained his current pace over the next eight games, McCaffrey would become the first player in league history to record 2,400 scrimmage yards and 25 touchdowns in a season. Even if he doesn't reach that plateau, McCaffrey could join LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Priest Holmes (2003), Marshall Faulk (2000), and Emmitt Smith (1995) as the only players to post over 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Tomlinson and Faulk were named MVP in those seasons.

Inside Panthers roster: Cam Newton’s IR placement is a brutal break for both parties. Kyle Allen simply does not provide the kind of ceiling the former No. 1 pick did, when healthy, and a Carolina future without the cornerstone quarterback is now very real. If Allen continues to play well, however, the Panthers have an intriguing trade chip. Newton’s foot problems bring down his trade value, but it is not farfetched to see a franchise take on the 30-year-old ex-MVP’s $18.6 million 2020 salary and secure exclusive negotiating rights for extension talks.

Inside Packers numbers: Green Bay ranks 22nd in third-down conversion rate (36.5 percent). The Packers have particularly struggled on third-and-long situations. They rank 27th in conversion rate on third & 10+ passing plays (13.3 percent). 

Inside Packers roster: Green Bay has invested significantly to upgrade its secondary, but the team has relied on 36-year-old Tramon Williams extensively this season. Kevin King and Josh Jackson, Packers second-round picks from 2017 and ’18, are not reliable. Jackson has played 68 defensive snaps this season, and Pro Football Focus rates King as its No. 87 cornerback. Despite the Packers’ 7-2 start, they have the league’s 21st-ranked pass defense.

Minnesota (6-3) at Dallas (5-3), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Vikings numbers: Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen are dominant, ranking first and third in pressures with 54 and 49, respectively. Their battles against Cowboys tackles La'el Collins and Tyron Smith, who are ranked top-15 at their positions in pass-blocking efficiency, will be must-see TV. 

Inside Vikings roster: Minnesota has enjoyed a relatively injury-free season, but WR Adam Thielen’s hamstring trouble throws the Vikings off axis. Stefon Diggs caught one pass for four yards against the Chiefs in Week 9. With so much of this passing attack funneled through Thielen and Diggs, either’s absence reveals the sizable quality gap between Minnesota’s high-end receiver tandem and the rest of its skill-position arsenal. Second-round tight end Irv Smith Jr. has shown promise, his 207 receiving yards outdoing Kyle Rudolph. .

Inside Cowboys numbers: Dallas leads the league in net yards per pass attempt (8.1) and third-down conversion rate (50 percent), and it is fourth in yards per rush attempt. Excelling in nearly every category, the Cowboys' offense is ranked first in offensive EPA and second in points per drive.

Inside Cowboys roster: Various issues have kept the Cowboys from fielding complete defensive lines in recent years. Suspensions and the lack of a true DeMarcus Lawrence complement lowered Dallas’ pass-rushing ceiling. Trades of sixth- and seventh-round picks brought Robert Quinn and Michael Bennett to Dallas; the former now has 6.5 sacks in six games and the versatile Bennett put a team-high four hits on the Giants’ Daniel Jones in Week 9. The revamped group looks like the Cowboys’ best pass rush since the DeMarcus Ware years, and the franchise has done well to quickly recover from the Taco Charlton mistake.

MONDAY

Seattle (7-2) at San Francisco (8-0), 8:15 p.m. ET

Inside Seahawks numbers: Russell Wilson leads the NFL in passer rating (118.2) on the strength of his league-best 7.5 percent touchdown rate. (League average is 92.7.) Wilson's league-leading 22 touchdown passes are the most by a player through nine games while throwing fewer than two interceptions, beating Drew Brees' record of 21 set in 2018.

Inside Seahawks roster: The only team to submit a waiver claim on WR Josh Gordon, Seattle has a situation that should not ask too much of the historically unreliable talent. Gordon will slide into a Tyler Lockett complementary role, and with the Seahawks owing a non-guaranteed $1 million to the mercurial talent, this seems like a worthwhile flier. The loss of Will Dissly hurt the Seahawks, though Russell Wilson’s outing against the Buccaneers didn’t show it. Gordon likely has one more chance to establish consistency, with his (somehow) first crack at unrestricted free agency coming in March.

Inside 49ers numbers: Some cracks opened in San Francisco's defense in Week 9, as the 49ers allowed a season-high 25 points against Arizona. Run defense is an issue, as the 49ers have allowed 283 yards, two touchdowns, and 6.3 yards per attempt on the ground over the past two weeks. Kyle Shanahan's team remains the premiere defense in the NFC, however, leading the conference in EPA and fewest points allowed per drive (1.02).

Inside 49ers roster: The NFL’s last remaining unbeaten stands to receive a boost; stalwart left tackle Joe Staley is due back from the broken fibula that sidelined him for six games. San Francisco has managed to produce the NFL’s No. 2-ranked rushing attack largely without its six-time Pro Bowler, so the Tevin Coleman- and Matt Breida-fueled ground corps will be in an even stronger position to deliver in the 49ers’ toughest test to date.