2024 RBC Heritage picks: Russell Henley has the skills

Russell Henley +5500 (FanDuel)

By Spencer Aguiar, Action Network

The outright market has a high hold percentage this week, but I essentially graded three golfers as positive plays near the top-20 win equity candidates on the board. The two I am not going to talk extensively about here are Si Woo Kim (+4000) and Xander Schauffele (+1200), but I did want to mention a few notes on Schauffele.

• Only Scottie Scheffler is playing better golf than him right now.
• Scheffler likely has a 50/50 chance to withdraw from this tournament to go and be with his pregnant wife.

We could debate a fair price for a golfer who has recently lacked win equity, but Schauffele is closer to ending his drought than the public realizes.

That said, I want to talk a little more about one of my favorite plays on the board: Russell Henley, who sits at 55-1 on FanDuel.

Henley has generated an eclectic course history answer by generating two top-20 finishes at this course in five years to go alongside three missed cuts. Nonetheless, the data shows all the answers you would want to see for a golfer trending toward a high-end finish.

The American graded as a positive-trajectory mover for Expected Tee-To-Green production at Harbour Town versus his baseline projection, and the 12th-place grade for 'Comp Putting' returns for this track massively outweighed the two-year running data that placed him outside the top 40 when taking on any generic track on Tour.

After adding that to his Historical Strokes Gained at Short Courses, Anticipated Strokes Gained Total and Past Pete Dye Success, you get a golfer with the skills required to take down a big event like the RBC Heritage.

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Xander Schauffele +1200 (bet365)

By Matt Gannon, Action Network

Many rag on Schauffele for not being competitive in major championships, but he does in fact know how to win. This week feels eerily similar to when Schauffele tied for 14th at the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club when his game was in a great spot.

The following week, he went on to win the Travelers Championship and look dominant. I really love that he played so well at Augusta but did not have to deal with the stress of contention for four days. At THE PLAYERS, he was in or around the lead for 72 holes, which is stressful to deal and play with. The following week, it took him a round or two to shake that off and backdoor a top finish at the Valspar Championship.

This week, Schauffele will be fresh and motivated. He is on an elite ball-striking run which he must cap off with a win. He tied for fourth in this event last season and missed the playoff by just a few strokes. This is a very similar style of golf to TPC River Highlands at the Travelers Championship, where he won the week after a major.

12-1 is a steep price for Schauffele, but he has been the most consistent golfer this season outside of Scottie Scheffler. Also, get this in while you can because I smell a withdrawal coming from Scheffler after winning the green jacket with his baby on the way!

Rory McIlroy +1300 (bet365)

By Tony Sartori, Action Network

Now feels like the appropriate time to finally strike on Rory McIlroy in a buy-low spot, especially at 13-1 which puts him in line with guys like Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg and Patrick Cantlay. Those three are all great golfers, but outside of Scheffler, McIlroy might be the top golfer on the planet when his game is on.

We are catching 13-1 because of McIlroy's struggles out of the gate this season, but he has started to round back into form with six straight top-25 finishes, including his third-place finish at the Valero Texas Open. His ball-striking has picked up immensely, which will be important this week at a course where approach shots toward small greens are imperative.

McIlroy has gained true strokes on Approach in five of his past six tournaments, but his putter has also has momentum as he has gained true strokes putting in five of his past six outings as well. McIlroy continues to trend upward, and if he wins this week, I don’t know how often we see 13-1 moving forward.