Cal Landing a Bowl Berth Would be a 'Real Big Deal'

For teams like Washington, Oregon, USC and Utah earning bowl a berth is no big deal. In fact, it’s a disappointment when they don’t land in the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl. Washington State is hoping to land a bowl berth for the eighth straight season (excluding the 2020 pandemic season), and Oregon State will be playing in a bowl berth for the third straight season this year.

But it’s been awhile for Cal. In fact, Arizona is the only Pac-12 team that has had a longer bowl drought than the Golden Bears, and Arizona is assured of a bowl berth this season.

Jaydn Ott acknowledged that a bowl berth would be a significant achievement.

“That’s big,” he said. “I mean, we haven't been to one in a while. I don’t know the last time when we went to a bowl game, but it would be huge, man.”

For Ott’s information, the last time Cal went to a bowl was 2019, when the Bears beat Illinois in the Redbox Bowl. And the Bears have earned a bowl berth in only three of the past 11 seasons.

So, yes, getting to 6-6 to become bowl-eligible would be a big deal for Cal.

Let’s assume for a second that Cal, which will be an underdog against UCLA (7-4), upsets the Bruins to go to 6-6. Which bowl would Cal play in?

Well, it depends on where teams like Washington and Oregon wind up, whether one gets to the College Football Playoff and/or a New Year’s Six game.

But the most likely bowl destination for a 6-6 Cal team would be the Independence Bowl, where the Bears would face a Big 12 foe in Shreveport, Louisiana, on December 16.

Less likely, but still possible, would be a Cal berth in one of three ESPN-operated bowl games: The Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23, Fort Worth, Texas), First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, Dallas) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22, Tampa, Fla.).

Cal could even wind up in the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option to take teams from two of eight conferences tied to this bowl, with the Pac-12 being one of those eight conference. It will be held Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Alabama.

Cal won’t care. The Bears would just like to go to a bowl game – any bowl game – and that would also give Cal a chance to finish with a winning record, which seemed impossible when the Bears were 3-6 and dealing with a four-game losing streak.

Even if Cal loses to UCLA there is teeny-tiny chance that Cal could play in a bowl with a 5-7 record. That would happen only if there are not enough teams with six wins to fill all the bowl vacancies. If that happens, the 5-7 teams with the best Academic Progress Rates (APR) would earn the vacant bowl berth. The Bears are tied for the 36^th-best APR among FBS teams, and they are behind a bunch of FBS teams that could end up 5-7.

Let's put Cal’s chances of landing bowl berth with a 5-7 record at about 0.01%. In other words, it will take a win over UCLA to make a bowl berth a reality. And bring Mendoza to tears.