Baylor vs. Iowa State pick, prediction: For Cyclones, no flash, just cash

Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds

Friday, March 15, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

If you've kept up with Iowa State, that's nothing new. The Clones' defense ranks second nationally in Defensive Efficiency, only behind Houston. None of Iowa State's past six opponents scored more than 65 points against it.

The offense is a different tale. Compared to last season, Iowa State's offense looks like the 2016 Warriors, but it ranks 71st in efficiency. It's strange, as national title-contending teams typically perform better on the offensive end.

Is Iowa State a title contender? It can at least come closer to winning the Big 12 title with a win over Baylor.

Iowa State's guards dictate whether the offense will succeed or not. Tamin Lipsey, Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert all average over 10+ points per game. Gilbert and Lipsey focus more on attacking the hoop, while Jones' shooting stretches the defense out.

Lipsey is one of the best two-way players in America, and he should shine in this one.

The one key for Iowa State? Milan Momcilovic. The stretch forward adds a different dimension to T.J. Otzelberger's offense with his shooting. The freshman forward hit a wall recently, shooting 2-of-14 from deep in the past five games.

Meanwhile, Baylor wants to make the Big 12 title game and will have to beat Iowa State for a second time. The Bears handled the Cyclones in a low-scoring 70-68 battle last month in Waco. Baylor was another victim of Iowa State's defensive pressure, turning it over 20 times, but made up for it by going 12-of-23 from 3.

That's the bread and butter of Scott Drew's offense — one of the notorious great offensive minds in college hoops. The Bears offense ranks fifth in efficiency and shoots 40% from downtown, one of the best marks in the sport.

Six Baylor players average double-digit points, led by freshman sensation Ja'Kobe Walter and playmaking dynamo RayJ Dennis.

As a freshman guard, Walter has seen the ups and downs in the best conference in the country, shooting only 38% from the field and 33% from 3. He isn't an efficient scorer, but he's more than skilled enough to drop 20+ on any night.

Dennis is the real key, though. The fifth-year senior transfer from Toledo is top-10 nationally in assists — he also turns the ball over 3.5 times per game, including six times against Iowa State.

The Bears' defense is a total disaster at defending the rim, allowing 1.20 PPP (per Synergy). With how Iowa State's guards want to attack, it could be a long night for a shaky Bears defense.

The Cyclones' defense created major matchup problems for Baylor once, and it could happen again. Baylor probably won't shoot 52% from 3 this time, which greatly favors Iowa State.

The Cyclones are one team that Vegas has struggled to correctly price, which explains the positive 21-10-1 ATS record.

Iowa State isn't some flashy shooting team, but it's an experienced team with winning players. I'll gladly back the Clones' here.

Pick: Iowa State -1 (Play to -2.5)