The Wild Card Weekend of the 2013 NFL Playoffs has concluded and it's time to check in on the practice bets I set up for the games.
Despite Andrew Luck's resilient play featured above (/ht SB Nation), the Colts amazing comeback wouldn't have cost me.
I had two parlays in play:
4-leg: Chiefs, Saints, Bengals, Packers
6-leg: Chiefs, Saints, Bengals, Packers, Under Eagles-Saints, Under Packers-49ers
Obviously, the Bengals and Packers lost which destroyed both parlays at $10 apiece.
I also had made two straight-up bets: Under Eagles-Saints, Under Packers-49ers In both cases, the total score was under which would have netted $17.80 plus the original $20 back.
In retrospect, I should have laid more money on the straight-up bets and perhaps added a 3-leg parlay of Chiefs, Saints and Under Packers-49ers.
Won: 17.80 (plus 20 on winning tickets)
I just came back from my second trip to Las Vegas in 2013. I went to the sports book at the Aria and had a nice time and won some money and lost some money (see video above). I did better on my second trip, but I feel I should practice until the next time I'm in Vegas again to make some plays.
One thing in particular that didn't work out this trip was the Ted Baxter system (though I didn't use it).
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and St. Louis Rams were all double-digit underdogs and were all smoked by the favorites by enough points to cover the big spreads.
So now to the NFL Playoffs Odds this week and how I'd play them:
The Indianapolis Colts are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs by one point.
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored over the New Orleans Saints by three points.
The Cincinnati Bengals are favored over the San Diego Chargers by seven points.
The Green Bay Packers are favored over the San Francisco 49ers by three points.
In a simple 4-leg parlay, I'd take the Chiefs, Saints, Bengals and Packers.
Of the over/unders, the under (47) is only favored in the Packers-49ers game, I'd also take that in a parlay. Because it's projected to be below freezing for kickoff in the Eagles-Saints game, I'd take the under 54 points for a six-leg parlay. I'm not really too confident in picks besides the over/under, however.
To recap, I'd be betting this week:
4-leg: Chiefs, Saints, Bengals, Packers
6-leg: Chiefs, Saints, Bengals, Packers, Under Eagles-Saints, Under Packers-49ers
Straight Up: Under Eagles-Saints, Under Packers-49ers
Assuming a $10 bet on each, I'd be risking $40 on chances to win up to $607.80. Let's see what happens.
Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles went from worst to first in the NFC East this season. Foles was worst amongst NFL rookies last season (and 32nd of 36 ranked quarterbacks) with a Positive Impact Factor rating of 28.8. This season, Foles turned in a league-best PIF of 62.9.
Under Chip Kelly, Foles’ negative plays fell eight percent while his touchdown production soared from 2.4 percent of his plays to eight percent of his plays this season, second only to Peyton Manning (8.1%). Foles was the only quarterback over 60 in PIF this season.
Here’s the full 2013 NFL Regular Season PIF standings (min. 224 touches, rookies in bold):
1. Nick Foles, Eagles: 62.9
2. Josh McCown, Bears: 58.8
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers: 56.8
4. Drew Brees, Saints: 54.3
5. Cam Newton, Panthers: 52.9
6. Alex Smith, Chiefs: 52.2
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers: 52.1
8. Andrew Luck, Colts: 52.0
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys: 51.9
10. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: 49.4
11. Sam Bradford, Rams: 48.9
12. Russell Wilson, Seahawks: 48.5
13. Chad Henne, Jaguars: 46.2
14. Tom Brady, Patriots: 43.9
15. Robert Griffin III, Redskins: 43.3
16. Andy Dalton, Bengals: 42.7
17. Peyton Manning, Broncos: 40.9
18. E.J. Manuel, Bills: 40.3
19. Terrelle Pryor, Raiders: 40.0
20. Matt Cassel, Vikings: 38.8
21. Matt Ryan, Falcons: 37.8
22. Mike Glennon, Buccaneers: 36.6
23. Joe Flacco, Ravens: 35.4
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Titans: 35.2
25. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: 35.1
26. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: 33.8
27. Carson Palmer, Cardinals: 33.8
28. Matthew Stafford, Lions: 33.7
29. Jason Campbell, Browns: 33.2
30. Jay Cutler, Bears: 33.1
31. Matt Schaub, Texans: 32.6
32. Case Keenum, Texans: 31.7
33. Geno Smith, Jets: 30.6
34. Christian Ponder, Vikings: 29.5
35. Eli Manning, Giants: 26.8
36. Brandon Weeden, Browns: 26.4
37. Kellen Clemens, Rams: 25.9
Here’s the regular season award winners:
MVP: Nick Foles, PHI, 62.9
Rookie of the Year: E.J. Manuel, BUF, 40.3
Comeback QB of the Year: Alex Smith, KC, 52.2
Most Improved: Nick Foles, PHI, 34.1 higher than 2012
TD Producer Award: Peyton Manning, DEN, 8.1% of his touches were TD
Lowest Negative Play Percentage: Philip Rivers, SD, 33.1% of his touches were incompletions, sacks or fumbles
Lowest Extremely Negative Factor Award: Nick Foles, PHI, 10.5 XNeg (giveaways) factor
While Peyton Manning produced touchdowns more frequently than anybody else and had an amazing 56 total TDs, he also had the worst season of his career hanging onto the ball with 10 fumbles (6 lost) and was only 13th in turnover percentage (2.3).
Eli Manning not only through the most interceptions this season (27), he also threw the highest rate of interceptions on his incompletions (11.5%). Overall, Eli produced 1.6 percent fewer touchdowns than turnovers.
After winning the PIF MVP in 2012, RGIII took a step back in 2013. Griffin led the NFL in QB rushing frequency in 2012 with rushes on 23.4 percent of his touches. In 2013, Griffin’s rushing frequency fell to 15.9 percent of his touches. Griffin staying in the pocket more didn’t help his passing as his rate of interceptions nearly doubled.
A little Horrible Instagrams collab I did with the BLITZED folks on the inside process of waiver requests in your NFL fantasy football league. Ever wonder what "higher priority" means when you have a waiver wire request turned down by the commissioner? Check out this video, just in time for the fantasy football playoffs!
There's a brand new webseries focused on the NFL (and cold beer!) on YouTube: BLITZEDontap featuring Rebecca Zaccard and Travis Platt. BLITZEDontap is filmed weekly at a bar called The Den of Hollywood. Check out the latest episode (complete with a Flip Cup Start 'em Sit 'em game) above and make sure to subscribe, like, comment and follow the creators on Twitter (Travis, Rebecca), Facebook and G+. #getBLITZED
College Football is back as of today, which is awesome. Yesterday, I used the Positive Impact Factor in a space I hadn't yet published, College Football News, to provide a couple of case studies from 2012 as well as an explanation of the rating system.
I picked Air Force-Hawaii and Kansas-Texas Tech as examples of interesting games where the traditional Passer Rating lets us down. In the case of Air Force QB Connor Dietz, he had a 0 Passer Rating because he didn't attempt a pass. He, along with the rest of the Falcons' rushing attack was highly efficient and his PIF, by contrast, was a 92.9.
In the KU-TT game, Seth Doege was shown to have vastly outplayed KU QB Michael Cummings. The game went to overtime and was decided by a wildcat TD thrown by a Red Raider running back. When the game was on the line, Cummings was the one to extend it to overtime with a huge run (which set up a field goal) and an earlier Doege interception changed the momentum and the early lead Texas Tech had. As a result, the PIF ratings were a more even 66.4 to 60.9 in favor of Doege.
For me, it was a crucial time to give new readers a chance to check out PIF because ESPN is now going to push their win-biased, narrative fitting, have to watch film to subjectively determine Total QBR into the college game as well.
EA Sports' presentation upgrade trailer for NCAA Football 14. The decision has been made to go toward a more realistic TV style experience in the presentation. I'm not sure it's the best idea. I wrote at length about this topic yesterday at Crystal Ball Run (where I'll be contributing on occasion).
It's that time of year again. The first gameplay video is out from EA Sports on the latest game in the NCAA Football series. NCAA Football 14 will include things like the ability to use real cuts in running. Acceleration burst is also on the game as is "real-time physics." The latter of which shows what looks like it will likely be a gamer frustration, super power trucking, while using the same trucking animation no matter the size of the running back.
I've bought the game for x years in a row now and I'm not sure I will buy this one. I'm waiting to see more for now.
Robert Griffin III helped the Washington Redskins win the NFC East for the first time since 1999 this year with his dynamic play at the quarterback position. Griffin led the league as a rookie in both pass yards per attempt (8.14, only player over 8) and rush yards per attempt (6.8, Adrian Peterson & C.J. Spiller were the only other players with at least 6 yards per attempt at 6.0). Griffin also won the Positive Impact Factor (PIF) MVP with a PIF of 62.3, which shatters Cam Newton's rookie PIF record of 49.9 in 2011.
Here's the full standings (min. 224 touches, rookies in bold):
1. RGIII, WAS, 62.3
2. Tom Brady, NE, 60.2
3. Colin Kaepernick, SF, 56.6
4. Aaron Rodgers, GB, 53.8
5. Matt Schaub, HOU, 53.4
6. Russell Wilson, SEA, 52.2
7. Peyton Manning, DEN, 51.9
8. Alex Smith, SF, 51.7
9. Matt Ryan, ATL, 50.8
10. Cam Newton, CAR, 50.0
11. Drew Brees, NO, 46.7
12. Sam Bradford, STL, 46.6
13. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 44.9
14. Eli Manning, NYG, 43.9
15. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN, 43.0
16. Christian Ponder, MIN, 40.9
17. Tony Romo, DAL, 40.9
18. Andy Dalton, CIN, 40.2
19. Joe Flacco, BAL, 39.8
20. Brandon Weeden, CLE, 39.0
21. Josh Freeman, TB, 38.5
22. Matthew Stafford, DET, 37.6
23. Brady Quinn, KC, 36.9
24. Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 36.8
25. Michael Vick, PHI, 36.1
26. Andrew Luck, IND, 35.2
27. Jay Cutler, CHI, 34.1
28. Blaine Gabbert, JAC, 32.5
29. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF, 32.2
30. Jake Locker, TEN, 31.0
31. Chad Henne, JAC, 30.5
32. Nick Foles, PHI, 28.8
33. Philip Rivers, SD, 28.1
34. Carson Palmer, OAK, 26.8
35. Mark Sanchez, NYJ, 6.5
36. Matt Cassel, KC, 6.5
Here are the regular season award winners:
MVP: RGIII, WAS, 62.3 (1st rookie to win MVP)
Rookie of the Year: RGIII, WAS, 62.3
Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, DEN, 51.9
Most Improved: Sam Bradford, STL, 46.6
TD Producer Award: Aaron Rodgers, GB, 6.2% of his touches were TD
Lowest Negative Player Percentage: RGIII, WAS, 32.6% of his touches were incompletions, fumbles or sacks
Lowest Extremely Negative Factor Award, Tom Brady, NE, 6.8 XNeg (giveaways) Factor
Here's the Divisional winners:
AFC East: Tom Brady, NE, 60.2
AFC North: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 44.9
AFC South: Matt Schaub, HOU, 53.4
AFC West: Peyton Manning, DEN, 51.9
NFC East: RGIII, WAS, 62.3
NFC North: Aaron Rodgers, GB, 53.8
NFC South: Matt Ryan, ATL, 50.8
NFC West: Colin Kaepernick, SF, 56.6
Rookie Category Highlights/Lowlights:
Highest PIF: RGIII, WAS, 62.3 (led NFL, Rookie Record)
Lowest PIF: Nick Foles, PHI, 28.8 (Ranked 32nd)
Lowest Negative Play %: RGIII, WAS, 32.6 (led NFL, Rookie Record)
Highest Negative Play %: Andrew Luck, IND, 46.4 (3rd Worst in NFL)
Highest TD %: Russell Wilson, SEA, 5.8 (3rd in NFL, Rookie Record)
Lowest TD %: Nick Foles, PHI, 2.4 (3rd Worst in NFL)
Fewest Giveaways: RGIII, WAS, 7 (4th Fewest of starting QBs, Rookie Record)
Most Giveaways: Andrew Luck, 23 (2nd Worst in NFL)
None of Arizona's QBs met the minimum to qualify for the leaderboard this season. The dropoff in play once Kevin Kolb was injured was noticeable. Kolb finished the season with a PIF of 41 and produced a TD on 4% of his touches. John Skelton (9.8 PIF) and Ryan Lindley (6.1 PIF) combined for 2 TD and 20 giveaways. Brian Hoyer had a PIF of 36.1 in his 2 games played this season for the Cardinals and had 1 TD and 2 giveaways.
Mark Sanchez had a negative play occur on 50.1% of his touches, which was worst among starters this season. He also ranked dead last in giveaways in the NFL with 26 (18 INT, 8 lost fumbles).
Despite the rushing done on 19+% of the touches of RGIII, Kaepernick, Wilson and Newton, the league's QB rush percentage average this season (7.9) remains below the peak year of 2000 (9.7).